remapping Illinois US House districts to make IL-04 & IL-05 Latino districts
I have begun the process of remapping Illinois' US House districts using demographic data from Wikipedia and censusreporter.org. My goal is to make a map that more accurately reflects the demographics of Illinois. There's a logic to the map that makes sense to me, but I have not focused on creating a bunch of comfortable Democrat districts. See Dave Wasserman's example of this approach.
I have avoided creating comfortable Democrat districts because the most reliable way to do this is to prop up "comfortable Dem" districts with Latino, Black and Asian voters who then get to vote Democrat but not be elected as Democrats. (Yes, there are exceptions, like Rep. Lauren Underwood, but the norm is more like having Reps. Bill Foster, Marie Newman (previously Dan Lipinski) and Mike Quigley blocking the path for Latinos.)
The draft maps:
Illinois' Fourth (IL-04) District (Wikipedia on current district):
Illinois' Fifth (IL-05) District (Wikipedia on current district):
Excuse the stray lines. I was in a special situation tied to the difference between Indiana and Illinois law that allowed me to get promoted mid-year from kindergarten to first grade and I never really got good at the "scissors, cut and paste" part of kindergarten.
Both of these districts have enough people to form a Congressional district. I assume the new districts (based on dividing Illinois into 17 pieces are going to be about 745,000. The IL-04 district is well over 50% Latino. The IL-05 district is about 50% Latino.
Edge of the district issues
The IL-04 district has more edge issues, but has more Latinos to spare (and potential to gain more in Bolingbrook and Romeoville).
The Chicago community areas of Ashburn, Chicago Lawn and New City have significant African-American population in addition to the Latino population. The goal would be to draw the Latino population (as much as possible) into IL-04 and to draw as much of the African-American population into an adjacent Black district.
Ashburn
The IL-04 turf including Ashburn
When building the spreadsheet, I assumed that only 20% of Ashburn's 43,000 people will be in IL-04. So, there are Latino voters to add to IL-04 from Ashburn. The assumption is that the Black areas of Ashburn are going to be part of an adjacent African-American district.
Chicago Lawn
The Chicago Lawn part of IL-04
African-American parts of Chicago Lawn would be easily connected to the adjacent Black district. The people lost could be made up with white Republican areas west of IL-04.
New City
New City portion of IL-04
New City is on the edge of IL-04 in three directions, so it it particularly easy to shift Black folk to an adjacent Black district.
Bolingbrook and Romeoville
Bolingbrook and Romeoville actually have significant Black and Latino populations.
They could be added to IL-04, or attached to a majority Black district.
Edge issues of IL-05
IL-08 is currently represented by Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi. From a diversity point of view, it's good for Illinois to have an Asian-American voice in Congress. But there are almost twice as many "Hispanic" residents in the current IL-08 as Asian and Asian-American.
My plan for IL-08 is to attach the heavily Asian parts of IL-08 to Niles Township (Cook County) and West Ridge (Chicago community area) to create a district that connects areas that have significant Asian populations.
In furtherance of the goal of having a respectable Asian base in IL-08, there may be parts of IL-05 (as mapped above) that get moved to IL-08. For example, some areas of Albany Park might justify being in IL-08 instead of IL-05.
Humboldt Park
Humboldt Park clearly extends into what will be the IL-07 district. The demographics of Humboldt Park are such that the Latino sections should be part of IL-05 and the African-American sections should be part of IL-07.
Berkeley
Berkeley is on the edge between IL-05 and IL-07. The population is Berkeley is relatively low but is a community that has both Black (31.3%) and "Hispanic" (30.7%) residents.
Carol Stream & West Chicago
As Bolingbrook & Romeoville were an option to add Latinos west of IL-04, Carol Stream and West Chicago are communities south & west of the proposed IL-05 that could be used to increase the number of "Hispanics" in IL-05.
Another Latino district based on IL-11
Sorry, Rep. Bill Foster (and maybe Rep. Cheri Bustos), time to take one for the team. The district will include the Latino areas of Aurora and Joliet with some combination of Latino areas north of there along Fox River and in western DuPage, Rockford and Latino areas of Kendall County along the Fox River.
Both Speaker Welch and Senate President Harmon would live in IL-07 as I have the map conceived. I sorta feel like certain Democrats belong on the State Central Committee "ex officio", eg the Governor, the senior (Dem) Senator, the Speaker, the Senate President.
ReplyDeleteBut if the current system of managing Democratic Party of Illinois is kept, Welch and Harmon might want to be in separate Congressional districts.
Welch has run for delegate in IL-04, the Latino earmuff district.
So, Harmon could be in IL-07 and parts of Hillside being in the new IL-05 would put Welch in IL-05.
The potential hiccup is that Welch would have to win in a Latino district in the Dem primary and Harmon would have to win in a lean-Black district. Welch is Black and Harmon is Irish.