best case scenario; worst case scenario... Trump winning might be a good thing

 So, November 3, 2020 is the U.S. election date for President, Congress & other stuff.

What is the best case scenario?

1. There is no violence.

2. There is no interference with the right to vote in other ways.

3. The votes are counted in an orderly manner that does not invite allegations of corruption, malfeasance, incompetence or cheating.

4. The Democrats achieve 3/5 super majorities in both the US Senate (60 seats) and the US House (261 seats).

5. Left candidates for President get 15% or more of the vote.

6. Trump wins re-election with about 41% of the vote & Biden gets significantly more, eg 45% of the vote.

7. And various positive referendums pass, eg Illinois amending the state constitution to allow graduated income taxes.

This scenario will force Democrats to actually govern in Congress. Nancy Pelosi has got shit out of the Democratic majority in the US House. And Chuck Schumer leads the Democrats like he's got 39 votes on his side, not the 47 (45 + 2) votes he actually has.

Biden governing with Democratic majorities in Congress will lead to minor positive stuff for progressives & huge give-aways for for the capital class. Look for the United States to join TPP and expand "free trade" agreements. Look for deeper US military involvement in Syria. Look for almost all the bad stuff Hillary Clinton had planned. And on the progressive side... DACA recipients will get a "pathway to citizenship" (but not for those going forward). The police will get more money to train them to better spin killing Black people. The Affordable Care Act will be made "incrementally" better with insurance companies getting more money. Biden will probably push a campaign finance reform bill designed to be struck down by the Roberts Court (which will open the door to even worse precedents being written on election law). And do the extent Biden's appoints judges, they will be Democrats (with a few Bush Republicans) to the Right of the judges they are replacing.

But there is a worst case scenario:

1. There is widespread violence connected to elections, but some of it is just arbitrary terrorism that has parallels to lynching. Blacks & People of Color who are perceived as not showing deference will be threatened and beaten. Whites who challenge the racism & white supremacy will be attacked too.

2. There is coordinated interference with the right to vote, including overt use of demands for information to slow down voting in areas that vote for one party or the other.

3. The vote counts are transparently being done in a way that's partisan where it's easy to infer ballots are being disallowed based on who cast them and where that person lives.

4. The Republicans retain control of the US Senate and make gains in US House (perhaps take the majority).

5. Left candidates for President get under 5% of the vote.

6. Trump wins reelection with an ambiguous amount of the vote, somewhere around 50%.

7. Most of the referendums designed to improve things fail.

The United States has been "playing with fire" and operating at the edge of risk for a long time.

Having Trump remain as President is a reminded the risk is still there. Affluent whites, particularly Baby Boomers, seem ready to "go back to having brunch" if Biden is elected.

A Biden administration that doesn't deliver meaningful results for the people (and it would be shocking if a Biden admin delivered) will lead to huge GOP gains in 2022. And the next crop of Republicans cut their teeth in QAnon, not the College Republicans. (The College Republicans have been described to me as always having elections to create a "survival of the fittest" training ground that emphasizes ruthlessness.)